The Trump administration has returned more than $100 billion to American businesses and importers that paid his global tariffs, and that money is already making its mark on the economy. Corporate bottom lines are swelling, and one top economist says the refunds are also giving growth a measurable lift.
The refunds are boosting earnings at some of the biggest names in corporate America. A Wall Street Journal tally found that 40 companies in the S&P 500 have recorded $9.6 billion in refunds so far, with Apple alone reporting nearly $2.2 billion. Other top recipients include Nike, FedEx, Amazon, and General Motors.
“Not only are tariff refunds boosting corporate earnings, they are also boosting GDP growth,” Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok said in a note on Saturday.
Slok estimates the refund money will contribute about 0.2 percentage point to third-quarter GDP growth, which the Atlanta Fed says is tracking toward 4.3%. That would mark a steep acceleration from the second quarter’s gain of just 1.5%, which was skewed by high AI-related imports, as well as the 2.1% pace seen in the first quarter.
In the current quarter, the tariff refunds are combining with other positive forces, including the ongoing AI spending boom, tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and the reshoring of U.S. manufacturing. “The bottom line is that the U.S. economy continues to be supported by a growing set of tailwinds,” Slok added.
The surprisingly weak jobs report for July doesn’t signal the economy is losing momentum, he wrote. Slok attributed sharp drops in government payrolls and hospitality employment to quirks in seasonal adjustments. After backing out those sectors, the economy would have added 70,000 jobs, in line with Wall Street’s consensus, instead of losing 23,000 jobs.
He also pointed to jobless claims hovering around 200,000 a week and the number of job openings rising over the past six months. “In short, the market is underestimating how strong growth is right now,” he said. “As a result, rates will stay higher for longer.”
The refunds distributed so far represent about 60% of the $166 billion in revenues collected from import taxes under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which were struck down by the Supreme Court in February.
Some U.S. consumers, however, want to see some of that money reach their own wallets and are filing lawsuits against companies to demand it. Firms such as Amazon, FedEx, and UPS have vowed to return the funds to customers.
Earlier this month, analysts at Bank of America said in a note that retailers are using the returned money to fund promotions as well as offset freight and other supply-chain costs. BofA also expects some retailers will work with brands to recoup some tariff money, either via direct payments or future purchase order negotiations.
“Outside of this, companies have the optionality to use refunds to invest in the business (i.e. AI/tech) or return capital to shareholders,” analysts added.
With refunds flowing into corporate accounts, consumers pressing for their share, and analysts weighing how the windfall will be spent, the full impact of the tariff repayment is still unfolding. For now, the influx appears to be feeding a growth cycle that shows no immediate signs of cooling, even as expectations for interest rates remain elevated.
