Kazakhstan heads to the polls on Sunday, August 23, for a snap parliamentary election widely seen as a move to consolidate President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s authority, with the country voting for a single chamber legislature for the first time under a new constitutional system.
What kind of election is this?
The vote comes just weeks after the country of 21 million people, which shares borders with Russia and China, overhauled its legislative branch through constitutional changes. The reform replaced the previous two chamber parliament with a single chamber body called the Kurultai, part of Astana’s effort to cast itself as a leading democracy in Central Asia. Kazakhstan last elected its parliament in 2023.
Voters are choosing 145 members of the Kurultai. Any party needs at least 5 percent of the nationwide vote to secure seats. The new system took effect on July 1, the same day Tokayev signed a decree calling the snap election. Previously, the legislature was bicameral, with a lower house known as the Mazhilis and an upper chamber called the Senate. Under the old setup, legislation first passed through the Mazhilis before moving to the Senate, according to the Astana Times. Now, the Kurultai handles legislative review and sends adopted bills directly to the president.
The constitutional overhaul also changed rules for the presidency. Presidents are now limited to a single term of seven years. However, Tokayev, who is in his second term, will be eligible to run again for another seven-year term after his current mandate ends. That is because the introduction of the new legislature resets the clock on his time in office. Tokayev won the last presidential election in 2022 with more than 80 percent of the vote, facing little real competition as all five challengers were relatively unknown figures.
Who is running?
International observers are expected to be on hand for Sunday’s vote. The OSCE Parliamentary Assembly said last week that nearly 80 parliamentarians and staff from about 30 countries will be deployed to monitor the election.
Seven political parties are fielding candidates: the newly created Adilet, Auyl, Aq Jol, the People’s Party of Kazakhstan, the Nationwide Social Democratic Party, Baytaq, and Respublica. The country’s dominant political force for decades, Amanat, formally voted in June to dissolve itself and be absorbed into Adilet, which translates as “Justice.” The new party is led by close aides to Tokayev and was designed to distance itself from the legacy of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had long led Amanat.
Nazarbayev, once Tokayev’s mentor and patron, ruled Kazakhstan from 1991 to 2019. He is credited with modernizing the economy, but his tenure was also marked by corruption, civil unrest, and authoritarian governance. He won the presidency five times in elections that were widely criticized as unfair.
Adilet’s campaign is built around the slogan “Just Kazakhstan.” Its promises include boosting household incomes, strengthening the economy, and improving public services, infrastructure, and digitalization. In Almaty, the country’s largest city, posters for Adilet have dominated the streets for weeks, according to Reuters. Opinion polls suggest the party is likely to win a comfortable majority, with smaller opposition parties also expected to enter parliament. Analysts say many of those parties are broadly loyal to Tokayev as well.
Other parties have focused on specific issues. Aq Jol has promised to support entrepreneurship, Auyl is advocating for stronger rural communities, and Baytaq, the Green Party, is campaigning on environmental protection.
What do voters expect?
Political analyst Rustam Burnashev told Reuters that while the snap election gives Tokayev an opportunity to push out figures linked to Nazarbayev, sweeping political change is unlikely. “All the parliamentary candidates are known,” Burnashev said. “Nor can one say that the parliament itself will be a transformative one.”
Despite years of rapid economic growth, higher taxes and inflation have squeezed living standards. Atapsha, a fruit seller who did not want his full name published, told Reuters he planned to vote but held no great hopes. “I am 73 years old. I’ve been waiting for things to get better for 73 years, but so far, nothing has really worked out. Still, I hope that this year things will finally improve,” he said.
What does this mean for Kazakhstan’s standing?
Tokayev launched a package of political reforms called “New Kazakhstan” in 2022, and the recent constitutional changes were approved in a referendum before taking effect in July. Analysts say the upcoming election will show whether the country’s new leadership can operate within the revamped single chamber system and maintain its foreign policy course.
Astana is also trying to build its image as a democratic nation and a key regional power. Tokayev has sought to modernize infrastructure, diversify the economy, and deepen ties with China and the European Union. Relations with Washington have also warmed. In November, Kazakhstan signed a $4.2 billion agreement with Wabtec, an American maker of locomotive parts. The deal, according to the United States Department of Commerce, will supply Kazakhstan with 300 kits to build locomotives for the national rail company Kazakhstan Temir Zholy. President Donald Trump celebrated the deal on Truth Social, calling it “the largest Railroad Equipment Purchase in History.”
Though Kazakhstan has historically been close to Russia, it has tried to stay neutral in Moscow’s war against Ukraine and has repeatedly called for peace. It has also offered to host peace talks in the war between the United States and Iran.
In an article published in April by the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School, researcher Nargis Kassenova wrote that Kazakhstan has started to position itself as a middle power. “While a lightweight by conventional standards, it has assets that make it significant for the rest of the world,” Kassenova wrote. “Its geostrategic location at the heart of Eurasia makes it both an important connector and buffer between Europe, Russia, the Middle East, South Asia, and East Asia. It is also a regional leader in Central Asia.”
Kazakhstan’s economy, which grew by 6.5 percent in 2025 to roughly $335 billion according to the Bureau of National Statistics, is heavily reliant on oil. The country supplies about 2 percent of the world’s daily oil output, and most of its exports go to Europe through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which runs to the Russian port of Novorossiysk. That pipeline and the tankers serving it have periodically been attacked by Ukrainian drones, causing supply disruptions.
All of these dynamics are at play as Kazakh voters deliver their verdict, a result that could shape the country’s political trajectory for years to come.
