Arsenal and Manchester City meet on Sunday at Cardiff’s Principality Stadium for the Community Shield, the traditional start to the English football season. History, though, sends a clear warning: lifting the early trophy is no guarantee of Premier League success.
Since the Premier League began in 1992-93, only eight of the 34 Charity or Community Shield winners have gone on to claim the league title. Five of those came in a six year spell between 2005 and 2010. Manchester City in 2019 were the most recent to do so, while Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United were the previous example in 2011.
In recent years the pattern has become even more stark. Just one of the last 15 Shield winners has also lifted the Premier League crown that season. The losing finalists, if they can be called that, have fared better, taking home the league title 10 times since 1992, including Manchester City’s three successive titles from 2021 to 2023.
Crystal Palace’s penalty shootout victory over Liverpool in the 2025 Community Shield last year is a prime example. Palace finished 15th in the Premier League, although they did go on to win the Conference League. Liverpool’s season was equally underwhelming, ending in fifth place.
The numbers also reveal that 16 out of 34 seasons, 47 per cent, saw a Premier League champion who had not participated in the Community Shield at all. Arsenal in 2025-26 fall into that category, having won the title without appearing in the previous edition of the fixture. Now they meet Manchester City as reigning champions.
When the Shield winner and loser are compared in the same season, the winner has finished higher in the league 18 times out of 34, or 53 per cent. In 10 seasons the two teams have ended the campaign first and second, with the Shield winner on top and the loser as runner-up on four occasions.
As for the previous season’s Premier League champions, they have won the Shield 18 times in 34, again 53 per cent, though this has become less common. Including Crystal Palace, the FA Cup holders have triumphed in eight of the last 12 Shields, compared with five in the previous 22.
Three times in the Premier League era, neither the league winners nor the FA Cup winners have claimed the Shield. Arsenal accomplished this in 1999 and 2023, and Manchester United did so in 2010, each qualifying as league runners-up before beating the Double winners.
Individual performances in the Shield have also proved misleading. Crystal Palace’s 2025 scorers Jean-Philippe Mateta and Ismaila Sarr combined for 37 league goals last season. Hugo Ekitike scored the first of his 17 goals in his debut season at Liverpool, but Jeremie Frimpong failed to build on his Shield strike.
In 2023, Cole Palmer scored for Manchester City against Arsenal, a game City lost on penalties following Leandro Trossard’s stoppage time equaliser. Palmer went on to net 22 Premier League goals and win young player of the season, but for Chelsea, after a £42.5m transfer.
The following year, Darwin Nunez scored on his Liverpool debut and Erling Haaland drew a blank for City. There was immediate debate over which signing looked superior, but Haaland ended that season with 52 goals while Nunez scored 15.
Kelechi Iheanacho’s 2021 Community Shield winner did not spark a prolific run, as he managed only four Premier League goals afterward. Raheem Sterling’s 2019 goal against his former club Liverpool, on the other hand, ignited the most productive season of his career, with 31 goals.
As the two teams prepare to walk out, the stats offer a reminder that the Shield is not the measure of a season. The victor may enjoy the moment, but the toughest tests are still to come.
