The countdown to the new Premier League season is on, and an extensive computer simulation has installed Arsenal as the team most likely to be celebrating again next May.
Arsenal ended a 22 year wait to be crowned champions last season, holding off Manchester City after finishing as runners up in three consecutive campaigns. Mikel Arteta now has the chance to become just the fourth manager in Premier League history to retain the title, following Sir Alex Ferguson, Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola.
Opta’s supercomputer, as reported by the Daily Mail, ran 10,000 data led simulations across the season, giving Arsenal a 38 per cent chance of lifting the trophy once more.
The main concern for Arsenal is William Saliba’s back injury. According to the data, their win percentage in the Premier League drops from 68.7 to 47.6 when the French defender is unavailable.
Manchester City are viewed as Arsenal’s most likely challengers again, despite the departure of legendary manager Pep Guardiola. Enzo Maresca’s side have been handed a 20.5 per cent chance of glory after a summer of significant change, with Elliot Anderson arriving for £116m, although Rodri could follow Bernardo Silva out of the club.
Liverpool are third in the predicted standings at 9.2 per cent, with new boss Andoni Iraola admitting in pre season that his side ‘cannot sustain the level we want’ at this time.
Manchester United follow with a 6.2 per cent chance under Michael Carrick.
Aston Villa sit fifth at 4.8 per cent, despite selling Morgan Rogers to Chelsea for a British transfer record £117 million and losing Youri Tielemans to Manchester United. Just behind them, Chelsea have a 4.1 per cent chance under new manager Xabi Alonso, with the benefit of a clear fixture schedule after missing out on Europe last season.
Tottenham are next at 2.9 per cent under Roberto De Zerbi. They have spent heavily this summer, bringing in Sandro Tonali for £100m and Mateus Fernandes for £85m, but they endured back to back 17th placed finishes in the past two seasons and only confirmed their top flight status on the final day of the last campaign.
At the other end of the table, the three newly promoted sides are considered most likely to go straight back down. Hull City, who came up through the play offs, lead the relegation odds at 38.7 per cent, followed by Ipswich on 31.2 per cent and Coventry on 27.9 per cent.
For now, the supercomputer’s verdict places Arsenal firmly on top, with the season’s opening day set to offer the first real hint of whether that confidence is justified.
